EFL Predictions 24/25: League One
The Championship’s middle sibling, League One is as stacked as ever, with big spenders Birmingham City adding to the mix, alongside as Huddersfield Town, who were in the play-off final only two years ago and Hollywood’s sweetheart team, Wrexham.
Known as one of the hardest leagues to get out of, it looks harder than ever as the spending goes up, and big boys like Bolton Wanderers, Wigan Athletic and Charlton Athletic remain, the tussle for the top is very tight. At the bottom, several teams have had huge turnovers, with Reading still having ownership questions over their head, a lot of teams could fall towards the drop. As much as the Championship is known as the wildest league in the world, there is non more open than the EFL’s League One.
Here are my picks for the automatic promotion spots, play-offs and the relegation bottom three.
The Automatic Promotion Places
1. Birmingham City
2. Huddersfield Town
Birmingham City have fallen into this division mainly due to bad decision making by their American owners, but since doing so they have splashed the cash like a top-end Championship club. Before the transfer window even opened, Birmingham already had the best squad in the league, the additions of former Northampton Town loanee, Marc Leonard, Bailey Peacock-Farrell and last season’s League One top scorer, Alfie May make this team leaps and bounds better than the competition.
It's arguable that the only risk with this side is their choice of manager, in bringing in Chris Davies, a former member of Tottenham Hotspurs backroom staff. Davies is someone who has worked in several different groups of backroom staff, and is a highly regarded coach, yet he has never worked as a full-time manager before. Birmingham will hope that Davies can have a John Mousinho like impact, with an already elite squad. With rumours that the Blues could yet add Fulham forward Jay Stansfield, it’s a no brainer to have Birmingham finishing first.
Choosing second is a hard fight, considering how good the competition of Rotherham and Bolton is, but Huddersfield’s squad, combines with manager Michael Duff’s record at this level, see’s them take the place.
Duff created and incredibly hard to beat team at Barnsley and came so close to taking them up two years ago, so is definitely the man for Huddersfield. The additions of Herbie Kane and Lasse Sorenson, who are top players at this level, only add to a squad that has Josh Koroma, Michal Helik and Rhys Healey, who should easily get close to 20 goals this campaign. The terrier’s just have a little bit extra quality than the rest, with the guidance of Duff, they take second.
The Play-Offs
1. Bolton Wanderers
2. Rotherham United
3. Stockport County
4. Charlton Athletic
Attempting to put all bias aside, its Bolton Wanderers who fall just short of the top two. Ian Evatt’s side is arguably the third best squad in the division, and it has got better in the last two months. Additions of Klaidi Lolos and Scott Arfield should add some x-factor to the team pressing forward, Chris Forino is a top-level defender at this level, Luke Southwood adds much needed quality as a backup goalkeeper, and Jay Matete is a brilliant ball carrying midfielder, who’s promotion record is impeccable. Wanderers boast some of the best players in the league, but failed to find a plan B when it came to the crunch time of the season. This year, Evatt has made some tactical tweaks and as the squad has not lost any key components, look for them to push the top two, right to the end.
Steve Evan’s Rotherham United comfortably make the play-offs in their first season back at this level. A squad basically built with a formula on how to go up, combined with Evans and his ridiculous record at League One level make them a problem for everyone. Jonson Clarke-Harris was top scorer in the division two years ago, Joe Rafferty was promoted with Portsmouth last campaign and Jordan Hugill should be an absolute pain for defenders, a player far too good for the league. Stocked squad, top manager, play-offs.
Stockport County are next on my list, as they look to go back-to-back. Dave Challinor’s team come up with a squad seemingly already set to push at this level. With front foot, pacy football, they will be a difficult challenge for anyone they face this year. Callum Camps, Lewis Bate, Kyle Wooton and Nick Powell have all already excelled in League One, adding Jack Diamond and Callum Connolly only adds to that, making this a compelling team that could really push. County’s x-factor could be bringing back Louie Barry, who when fully fit, is a top player.
This season, there are a number of teams that could really for the play-offs, both Wigan and Lincoln City have managed to recruit really smartly, but I have Charlton Athletic rounding out the play-offs. Nathan Jones is a solid manager at this level following his time at Luton Town, and he seems really in control of this team. Choosing to let go of Alfie May, replacing him with Matty Godden and Gassan Ahadme, seem smart moves to match Jones’s style. Adding Luke Berry and Greg Docherty add much needed quality and experience to central midfield and keeping Ashley Maynard-Brewer looks to be the make up of a really cohesive squad. Charlton played some really good football towards the end of last season, look for them to press on now Jones has had a full pre-season
The Relegation Places
21. Stevenage
22. Cambridge United
23. Shrewsbury Town
24. Crawley Town
Stevenage fall back down after a season that saw them flirt with the play-offs. Losing Steve Evans could be catastrophic for Stevenage, as they retain a squad that overachieved under him. Appointing Alex Revell, although romantic, doesn’t seem to be enough considering the majority of the squad is still League Two level. Retaining Jamie Reid, Jake Forster-Caskey and captain Carl Piergianni is huge, along side the addition of Louis Appere, yet despite this the rest of the squad lacks quality, and with Revell’s record being less than inspirational, I have them falling off as the year goes on and just dropping into the bottom four.
Cambridge United falling into League Two feels like a matter of time, and this season could be one too far for the Cambridgeshire side. Whilst I am not particularly against manager Garry Monk, performances after he came in last season were not spectacular and left the team on a downward spiral. A huge problem for Cambridge last year was goals, and the addition of Shayne Lavery doesn’t exactly solve that. The club have also brought in experience in the form of Gary Gardner and Kelland Watts whilst adding some untested youth with Taylor Richards, all of which scream of complacency. Whilst the club is open with its lack of budget, it feels like a matter of time before Cambridge fall back down.
Shrewsbury Town is another side where relegation feels like an inevitable prospect and in this case, sooner rather than later. After flirting with the bottom four over the last two years, Paul Hurst has attempted to overhaul most of the squad, but has ended up just running back to old faces rather than freshening the team up. Additions of John Marquis, Jordan Rossiter, Aristote Nsiala feel like just running back to type, and whilst George Lloyd has potential, now is not the time for that. A squad that lacks real quality alongside a club that just feels destined for the drop seems them fall a tier.
Scott Lindsay defied the odds last seasons, getting relegation favourites Crawley Town promoted. Not to play devils advocate, but I have them heading straight back down. Since promotion, Crawley have decide to let almost everyone go, close to 90% of the squad that came up, has left the club. One of the only players to remain, Ronan Darcy can excel at this level, Rushian Hepburn-Murphy adds some decent pace and Toby Mullarkey and Scott Malone are solid defenders, but with the turnover of players, I don’t believe even Lindsay can save this team from the drop.
Three teams to look out for; Lincoln City could make a real push for the play-offs, despite losing the goals of Joe Taylor, they look a really solid side, which the majority of, have chosen to stay and believe in the project. Wigan Athletic have recruited impressively, off the back of a solid twelfth placed finish, Joe Hugill could flourish, Thelo Aasgaard is too good for this level and Calvin Ramsay given a run of games can excel. Look for them to be pushing with Lincoln for the top six. Finally, Reading could be a thorn in a lot of teams side, with Ruben Selles being an excellent manager, despite off field issues, they could end up anywhere, up or down.
